The Greenland deal signed by President Donald Trump on Tuesday after months of threats appears to make small changes to a 1951 treaty that frames the US military’s footprint on the self-governing territory, according to experts, keeping non-NATO countries out and permitting a small uptick in US forces.
Trump had threatened to forcibly take Greenland if he did not find a deal to his liking, with European nations sending troops to the territory as tensions simmered.
The agreement between the US, Denmark, and Greenland serves as a supplement to the 70-year-old defense treaty that gave the US permission to station troops in Greenland as part of NATO’s defense. Among the primary additions are a prohibition of non-NATO members basing forces in Greenland, the building of two US bases, and an assurance of US military access if Greenland becomes independent from Denmark, experts said.
“I don’t think the military presence is going to be all that large, but it does increase our very modest presence in Greenland and is part of a much broader tableau of activities in the Arctic and expanding activities by everybody, including us, including the Canadians,” Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense and Security Department said.
The US military has had a small footprint at the Pituffik Space Base in Greenland for decades. And while President Trump said Friday that the US would “immediately begin” building out a “large military presence” in Greenland, Cancian said the final number of forces could be modest, pegging the total addition at under 50 troops.
The deal’s restrictions on non-NATO countries’ influence over Greenland, one of the key changes to the prior treaty, is “clearly aimed” at China and Russia, Cancian added.
Trump has framed the agreement as providing “permanent control over security” of the territory after previously saying that the US needed control over the country in order to maintain its own security. The agreement references Trump’s planned “Golden Dome” missile defense system, though that program remains years away from being built.
The US and other countries have turned increasing attention to the Arctic as icepacks have thinned, creating now navigable waterways that could shape global trade.
“You could argue that this Greenland issue has caused a lot of damage to Arctic security just because of the challenging political environment,” Iris Ferguson, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Arctic and global resilience under the Biden administration, told CNN. “But I think that this agreement really pushes in the right direction towards advancing common goals.”
The new agreement includes an assurance of US’ access if Greenland becomes independent of Denmark — an issue that “had long festered” with the old agreement, Ferguson explained.
Ferguson also added that there would need to be significant infrastructure investment done at the two locations where the US will establish bases — Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig — to not only house people but appropriately protect equipment in the harsh environment.
“I think all a lot of this stuff would have been agreed to pretty wholeheartedly without some of the rhetoric,” Ferguson said. “But that being said, I think that this is as good of an agreement as you could have hoped for, given the circumstances.”
Mark Rutte, secretary general of NATO, said in a social media post that it is “[g]reat to see the deal signed.”
“We know the threats we face, and greater security in the Arctic and North Atlantic is essential for Europe and North America alike,” Rutte said. “This agreement, along with NATO’s growing role in securing this vital region, enhances our collective security and supports a safer and more stable future for us all.”
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, who is the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, issued a statement after the deal was signed criticizing Trump’s threats ahead of the agreement.
“After months of threatening our NATO Ally Denmark and disregarding the will of the Greenlandic people, President Trump has reached a ‘deal’ that essentially returns the US-Greenland defense relationship to where it was before,” she said.
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