House Democrats appear to be flirting with one of the biggest popular vote wins in decades.
The CNN Poll of Polls shows them leading the so-called “generic ballot” by 9 points, thanks in large part to President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity. The last time either party won the House popular vote by at least 10 points in a midterm was in 1986.
But more so than the Senate, the battle for the House is difficult to follow. There are so many races — 435 of them, to be exact — and it’s tough to know which ones are important. How do you know whether Democrats are merely competing for the 218 seats needed for the majority — which they’re widely expected to win — or building a wave?
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We’ve picked a few races that will indicate whether Democrats are gaining seats, whether that’s enough for the majority and whether there’s a wave or even a tsunami building.
Follow these races on election night to know how well Democrats are doing.
These are the kinds of races Democrats really should be winning, under any circumstances.
California’s 1st District: This should be Democrats’ easiest pickup, after the district was redrawn to be one that would’ve favored Kamala Harris by 12 points in 2024. GOP Rep. James Gallagher is seeking reelection, but if Democrats can’t win here, they’re in for some shocking results.
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Given moderate GOP Rep. Don Bacon’s retirement and the slight blue lean of this Omaha-area district, this one should be a win for Democratic political activist Denise Powell.
New Jersey’s 7th District: This is a swing district in a state that moved toward Democrats between the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 state elections. Combine that with GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s months-long unexplained absence — he later cited treatment for depression — and the fact that a top Republican super PAC recently pulled money out of this district, and the signs of a Democratic pickup are there.
These are the seats where victory should mean Democrats are clearing the low bar for a House majority. (They technically need to flip three Republican seats, but the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting has effectively raised that threshold by a handful of seats.)
Arizona’s 6th District: It would seem telling that GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani didn’t show up a couple weeks back when Trump was in Arizona for a rally. (GOP candidate Jay Feely, who’s running in the state’s open 1st District, wasn’t there either.) Ciscomani holds a bona-fide swing district that should be very attainable for Democrats if they’re having a good night.
Iowa’s 3rd District: GOP Rep. Zach Nunn made big news in September by voting to limit Trump’s authority on the Iran war. He comes from a district that favored Trump by 4 points in 2024, but Democrats appear to be gaining significant ground in Iowa — competing to flip three House districts and win the Senate and gubernatorial races.
Texas’ 34th District: The GOP made Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s district into one Trump would have won by 10 points. House Speaker Mike Johnson has staked his job on holding seats like this one, saying at a recent campaign event, “South Texas will literally decide the majority in the Congress.” But polls show Hispanic voters have swung significantly back toward Democrats since then. That means they should really hold on to this seat if they’re to win the majority.
If Democrats are winning these seats, they’re probably looking at a wave election of at least some sort.
Kentucky’s 6th District: This district, which GOP Rep. Andy Barr is vacating to run for Senate, favored Trump by 15 points, but Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado began significantly distancing himself from Trump back in August. This will also be the first marquee House race where polls will close (at 6 p.m. Eastern Time).
Montana’s 1st District: This is another open-seat race in a double-digit Trump district that has looked competitive for a while. And Democrats have picked the kind of candidate who can seemingly put it in play: populist labor leader and former smokejumper Sam Forstag, who will face Republican Army veteran Aaron Flint.
Pennsylvania’s 1st District: In this swing district, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — perhaps the House GOP’s preeminent moderate — has proven remarkably resilient over the years. In fact, he won by 13 points in 2024 despite Trump narrowly losing his district. But these are the kinds of incumbents who tend to lose in a wave.
Winning these districts would make 2026 one of the bigger midterm waves in recent history.
Colorado’s 4th District: GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert has had her share of personal problems (see: “Beetlejuice”). But she was supposed to be safe when she switched to a deep-red eastern Colorado district in the 2024 election. The combination of her problems and the environment means this Trump +18 district is in play.
Missouri’s 2nd District: GOP Rep. Ann Wagner won by double digits in 2022 and 2024, but a spirited challenge from Democrat Fred Wellman has put this race on the radar screen. The district is not overwhelmingly conservative at Trump +8, but Wagner’s proven a solid incumbent — the kind you don’t really expect to lose.
New York’s 21st District: One of the first big signs of Democrats’ electoral momentum last year was when Trump withdrew GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to become United Nations ambassador because Republicans were worried about losing her Trump +21 district in a special election. It was virtually unthinkable at the time that they might also have to defend it in the general election, when such upsets aren’t nearly as common. But Stefanik is retiring, and it’s possible that Republican nominee Anthony Constantino could lose.
If these seats go blue, Tuesday could be a Republican drubbing of epic proportions.
Kansas’ 2nd District: If Democratic veterinarian Don Coover can upset GOP Rep. Derek Schmidt in this Trump +20 district, it will probably be because Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton did so well that his coattails pulled Coover across the line.
Texas’ 9th District: When Republicans redrew this state’s congressional map to try and win as many as five additional seats, this district — which Trump also would have won by 20 points — was supposed to be the second-easiest of the five. But some GOP outside groups have moved to shore up Republican Alex Mealer after a poll showed a single-digit race.
Wyoming’s At-Large District: The handicapper Inside Elections recently turned heads by moving this open statewide race, where Trump won by 46 points, from “solid Republican” to merely “likely Republican.” It cited Trump’s problems and how divisive GOP Secretary of State Chuck Gray has been. If Democrat Lisa Kinney can pull it off, the 2026 election will be historic.
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